Radiation Applications: Looking to the Future
Alan Waltar
After finishing the main text for the book I wrote on Radiation,(1) where I attempted to review the progress of radiation applications over the first century from the time of Marie Curie, the editor insisted that I end the book with a chapter on what to expect over the next 100 years. I violently objected, pointing out that this would be impossible. After all, when Marie Curie made her initial discoveries, nuclear fission and nuclear fusion were totally unknown phenomena—the discoveries of which entirely changed the course of radiation history. But, the editor would not take no for an answer. So, I took a stab at the challenge, noting that anyone reading the book 100 years from now would very likely laugh until their sides hurt—wondering how my imagination could have been so limited!
But, brushing aside the absurdness of attempting such forecasting, I will once again take a poke at what the future might bring.
a. Agriculture
The application of radiation technologies to the field of agriculture has had the largest economic impact of any of the applications. This is due mainly to the development of new crop species, created by irradiating either the stock or the seeds to evolve new mutant varieties with vastly superior attributes (i.e. greater yield, increased disease resistance, better nutritional value, adaptation to severe conditions such as salinity, high altitudes, etc.). Given the expected increase in global population, combined with a decrease in arable land and a scarcity of water, the radiation techniques that have been so productive in the past will undoubtedly continue to be employed.
It is both possible and highly probable that food irradiation will become much more common. It is estimated that up to half the food that is grown on the farm never reaches the kitchen table, and in many places as much as 90% of seafood spoils before it can be consumed. Irradiating the food while it is still fresh would solve most of these problems. The biggest challenge is to overcome unfounded public fear of radiation. It that can be accomplished, food irradiation could become a major contribution to the delivery of safe food.
Since agriculture practices consume up to 70 per cent of all potable water used by humanity, there will be increasing pressures to find the quantity of water needed. Fresh water constitutes only about 3 per cent of all the water on the planet, with most of the remaining quantity residing in oceans. Hence, as the pursuit of potable water continues to intensify, it is likely that desalination will become a mainstay in many parts of the world. But desalination is a fairly energy intensive process. Hence, nuclear power could be the answer for producing the energy necessary to provide the quantities of potable water needed. It is no surprise that a major driving force for the U.A.E. to purchase four large nuclear power plants from South Korea was the need to provide that arid region with abundant quantities of fresh water from seawater.
b. Medicine
Given the incredible progress of nuclear medicine over the past half century, especially for effective diagnostic techniques, it is reasonable to assume that future research will enable successful treatments for illnesses now considered inoperable. Aside from cancer, for which radiation techniques have already made enormous therapeutic progress,(2) the two diagnoses that are so much feared are Parkinson’s and Alzheimer’s diseases. Some inroads are already underway to provide early detection and it is not unreasonable to look toward the day when particular radiation techniques can be employed to significantly slow down such diseases, and possible provide a complete cure.
But I believe the next major accomplishment will be to personalize medicine. By employing specialty radiation techniques, it may well be possible to probe the human anatomy to discern the particular malady of issue and then pinpoint a treatment procedure for successful therapy. With having charted the human genome now an accomplished fact, it is not an impossible stretch to combine this insight with radiation technologies to both diagnose and successfully treat ailments in a personalized manner.
Mental disorders are becoming increasingly commonplace in today’s society. Being able to diagnose the problem in a personalized manner could reap incredible benefits. I know of individuals who have suffered from depression and were prescribed many different medications before their doctors found the combination that brought them back to robust health. Hopefully, advanced radiation techniques will eliminate a lot of the guess work present in current practices.
Organ transplants have become rather commonplace in recent years, but one of the principal challenges is finding appropriate donors. I remain positive regarding the future probability of removing a failing organ from a suffering patient, treating and restoring the organ, and then reinserting it into the patient. Such a procedure might allow a very intense radiation exposure for therapy to the failing organ without any side effects within the body surrounding that organ.
The long-sought “fountain of youth” may one day become a reality, if some of the early research materializes regarding the ability to “switch” back on certain DNA cells that normally turn off as a result of the normal aging process. Based on radiation probes calibrated to locate such DNA cells, this may not be just a fanciful dream.
On a more near term basis, I find it deplorable that many patients are refusing CT Scans for fear that radiation may cause future cancers.(3) Based again on the unfounded public fear of low level radiation, magazines such as Consumer Reports have printed sensationally scary articles on this topic and have refused to listen to radiation experts who have challenged their published materials. This deplorable situation, which is causing a great deal of harm, must be stopped by adopting and have the public accept a more realistic, scientific understanding of the actual effects of low-level radiation.
c. Electricity
As the global population continues to grow, and public concerns over climate change continue to mount, there is little question that nuclear power must increase—and increase at a much faster pace than at present. It is the only source of electricity that has the capacity for a reliable and an essentially unlimited supply, consistent with environmental stewardship.
Some may question the “unlimited supply” statement, recognizing that uranium and thorium supplies could eventually be depleted. But breeder reactors are capable of leveraging the raw fuel materials by nearly two orders of magnitude, and we know how to build these reactors.(4) Such reactors could even utilize the incredibly small concentrations of uranium in seawater, assuming the research currently underway continues to confirm the promising extraction processes.
One concern that still hampers the growth of nuclear power is the “waste” issue. Yet those knowledgeable on the topic are well aware that dealing with used nuclear fuel is really not a technical challenge. Again, it is the unfounded fear of low-level radiation that constitutes the problem. The amount of “waste” relative to the energy delivered is incredibly small, and there are several ways to safely deal with such small amounts. Further, it is possible with the fast spectrum breeder reactors to further reduce the amount of “waste” per unit of energy delivered and also literally burn up the objectionable materials that have the long half-lives that are worrying the public.
The only real challenge of building new nuclear power plants is the construction cost. One of the reasons for this up-front cost is the overly restrictive set of regulations concerning radiation release in the event of a major accident. By way of perspective, the accidents at Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima ironically provide a very positive perspective. Rather than the dire consequences generally envisioned by such major events, no one was killed or even injured as a result of radiation release from the Three Mile Island or Fukushima accidents. And for Chernobyl, a reactor that had no containment and could not have been licensed by any Western country, the total number of deaths appears to be only a few dozen (31 soldiers ordered to fly over the smouldering, totally exposed reactor, with blanketing materials) and a dozen or two children in Belarus who were not properly treated for thyroid cancer. For an industry now supplying some 11% of the global electrical supplies, this is a safety record unmatched by any other industry.
But another answer to the cost question could be the rapidly growing interest in developing Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). Such reactors, producing up to 300 MWe of electricity (rather than the large 1000 to 1500 MWe systems now being built) offer even greater safety credentials. The possibility of being able to manufacture them in factories, rather than on-site, provides some major advantages. Furthermore, with these smaller sizes, utilities have the option of bringing them on line in stages—allowing for some revenue to be streaming in while subsequent plants are being built. Another feature is allowing these plants to be built in many areas of the world where the large plants are simply far too big to match the size of local grids.
Finally, in the time horizon envisioned within this projection, harnessing nuclear fusion ma become a reality. Tackling the enormous technical challenges associated with this technology have been daunting, to say the least. But progress is continuing. If the ITER project (5) is successful, the plausibility question will have been answered. Solving the engineering challenges to convert this limitless supply of energy into an a practical electricity power plants may require several additional decades of effort. But the goal is so attractive that it continues to merit support.
d. Industry
The word “industry” covers such a wide swath in the infrastructure in which we live that few of us, of any, have a full appreciation for the multitude of ways radiation technologies have been used to enrich our lives. This stretches all the way from materials development, leak detection, food packaging, and the world of printing.
Within this wide field, successful strides in developing new industries often relies on the development of new materials. In almost any field, materials development is usually the “tall pole in the tent.” Materials that will withstand higher and higher temperatures remains a challenge for energy, since the higher the temperature the higher the efficiency. But there is also a challenge for materials that will withstand very low temperatures—those close to absolute zero for applications associated with the development of superconductivity. Radiation techniques are often used to provide insight regarding materials property changes for such wide swings in temperature.
The development of self-healing materials has already found application in the military, where chest protectors are often needed. Further developments along this line are almost certain to be in demand--especially for law enforcement agencies.
With the constant strides forward in achieving miniaturization, the development of radiation detectors in ever smaller packages allows for such detectors to be employed in many more areas, such as tracers in very restricted areas.
e. Transportation
Perhaps the most challenging energy-consuming sector needing to be weaned off fossil fuels is transportation. That segment currently constitutes an enormous fraction of all energy use. The obvious answer at present is to push toward more electrification of cars, trucks, ships, and trains. This is possible if proper investments in infrastructure are made. One of the advances foreseen is the development of “superconducting highways,” where electricity can be carried along transportation zones at low cost (once the infrastructure is completed). Of course, much more efficient battery development is also needed—but this may be possible over a long time horizon.
Powering airplanes, however, likely needs another energy carrier and at this point the hope is placed on hydrogen. Several issues remain to be solved, the prime challenge being the containment of hydrogen. But if this issue can be resolved, nuclear power plants remain strong contenders for the production of the needed hydrogen.
f. Space Exploration
The recent movie “The Martian” provided a fascinating saga about a manned flight to and from Mars (including a loop back to the red planet to save a stranded astronaut). In reality, however, it is highly unlikely that such a voyage can be completed using only chemical power. Nuclear power is essential to comply with the weight and thrust factors necessary for a round trip. It may be possible to get there with conventional chemical power, but it might be difficult to attract the needed flight personnel if they are told that they do not have the power needed to get back to earth!
But if are to look far enough into the future, it may become possible to harness antimatter. Research on producing antiprotons (protons with a negative charge) is proceeding. Although at an astronomical production cost today, along with huge challenges to store such material, the energy that antiprotons could theoretically deliver is about ten million times more than nuclear fission and about ten billion times more than the chemical energy in a Saturn V booster rocket. Too farfetched? It is certainly something to contemplate if we are willing to think out of the box!
g. Terrorism, Crime, and Public Safety
Despite our wishes to the contrary, global terrorism seems to be on the rise. Whereas it is a major concern, and will likely remain so for quite some time, we must recognize that the most fertile grounds for fuelling terrorism are in those areas suffering from abject poverty. As such, finding ways to lift people out of poverty and closing the gap between the “haves” and have nots” is probably the only effective way to eradicate this ever growing concern. Radiation, properly harnessed, represents an enormous boost to the quality of life. Consequently, it may be that our highest calling over the next several decades is to find ways to make this technology available to the billions of our fellow citizens who have yet to see a light bulb, and are simply not blessed with the abundance of life that can be achieved via applied radiation technology.
In a much more focused area, progress in the ability to utilize intense beams of radiation to detect malicious content in packages flowing every day in international commerce is a most welcomed development. This includes “radiation sanitized” mail that lands in the ‘in-box’ of many political leaders. “Smart clothing,” made possible via radiation devices, also represents a significant step forward in allowing peace keepers to safely do their duty.
h. Arts and Sciences
Radiation technology is already widely used to explore and preserve ‘arts’ and ‘heritage’ objects. Major global museums already benefit from this technology and will undoubtedly find further applications for preserving valuable history.
Understanding our universe continues to occupy the continuing attention of cosmologists around the globe. Explanations of how our universe and our small planet came into existence not only broadens our thinking; they bring new perspectives to the meaning of life…and how to live life abundantly! This work could not be done without employing the physics of radiation processes.
And speaking of living life abundantly, how about the increasing number of miniature radiation devices that can produce enough energy to create art in motion? Could it be that such technology can provide future artists with yet another dimension for their creations?
i. Environmental Protection
Pollution of all types continues to threaten the quality of the only planet we have for life. However, using radiation to break tough chemicals in effluents such as used oils or sewage sludge will surely find continu8ing applications in our effort to restore an acceptable environment
Perhaps the most significant challenge of the next century is to produce potable water in sufficient quantities to support an ever growing population. As noted earlier, there is plenty of water on the planet, but most of it is unfit for human use because of the salt content. A massive use of nuclear power is likely needed to produce the energy necessary to desalinate the quantities of water needed for agriculture, industry, and other essential areas to support human life.
Conclusion
Harnessed radiation is already making huge, positive impacts in improving the quality of life in many parts of the world. Marie Curie could not have possibly imagined how her discoveries at the start of the 20th century could have altered humanity in such a powerful and positive fashion. And we, today, can only dream of what might happen in the next 100 years. But if we can overcome the unfounded fear of radiation so deeply imbedded in large segments of our current population and their political leaders, I am convinced that we have seen only the tip of the iceberg.
If radiation technology can be successfully introduced and utilized in all parts of the world, the great unrest we suffer in the world today could be greatly reduced. A utopia of complete tranquillity will likely never come, as long as human greed continues to govern our instincts, but life can be every so much better if we can overcome the poverty that continues to rob children of their rightful inheritance.
Acknowledgement: The author greatly appreciates the critique/contributions to this article by Dr. Meera Venkatesh of the IAEA.
References:
1.Alan Waltar, RADIATION AND MODERN LIFE: Fulfilling Marie Curie’s Dream, Prometheus Books, 2004.
2.Alan Waltar and James Katzaroff, Special Report on Advances in Radiotherapy, World Council on Isotopes, January 2016 Newsletter.
3.Cynthia McCollough, To Scan or not to Scan: Consideration of Medical Benefit in the Justification of Scanning, Special Issue of the Health Physics Society, July 13-14 2015 HPS Meeting.
4.Alan Waltar, Donald Todd, and Pavel Tsvetkov, editors, FAST SPECTRUM REACTORS, Springer, 2012.
5.On the Road to ITER: Milestones, https//www.iter.org/proj/intermilestones.